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The EV transition

2023-06-23

An analysis from Boston Consulting Group found that between 25 and 80 percent of gas stations nationwide could be unprofitable in 12 years — and that analysis was conducted in 2019, before a slate of new policies, including federal tax credits, were passed to promote electric vehicles.

From Grist.

It's not as simple as gas stations becoming charging centers because most people will charge at home (no one fills up their car with gas at home each night) and charging on the road takes longer and so is more likely to be coupled with things besides a convenience store.

Apparently repurposing the sites is easier said than done because of the contamination from the underground gas tanks.

2021: The Year That Was and Wasn’t

2021-12-31

I contributed to a piece for the The Morning News about what 2021 will be known for and what we thought it would be known for, but didn't pan out.

My prediction for what we'd remember the year for is the breakout of electric vehicles. From the piece:

2021 was the year that the electric car won . Electric-car makers have sky-high valuations and traditional car makers are plunging billions of dollars into electric-car manufacturing and telling markets that 40 percent or more of their sales will come from electric vehicles by the end of the decade.

I almost had commercial fusion energy in this spot, but decided the evidence for it actually happening isn't strong enough yet.

For what was supposed to happen, but didn't pan out, I had return-to-office. I go on to predict that return to office will never really happen for most workers.

Covid is going to continue to cause havoc over the course of 2022 and 2023, whether it's additional variants or concern about breakthrough cases. While this will diminish over time, by the time it does, any job that doesn't explicitly require the worker to be in person will have moved to remote-first by default and any company that tries to buck this trend will be at a disadvantage in the marketplace.

Omicron, of course, is an example of how return-to-office will continue to be delayed. Eventually it will get too hard for companies to put the genie back in the bottle.