2024-12-29
Second Act is a book about late bloomers. I listened to the audio book.
In my mental library, this book is part of a trilogy with Range and Talent about how to do your best work.
The book probably only gets published because it’s about late bloomers, but I can’t think of any part of it that is only applicable to late bloomers.
I thought about survivorship bias basically the entire time I was listening to the book. Some of it is definitely embedded in here, but some wisdom is too.
A common theme in Oliver’s late bloomers is earnestness. Earnestness to the point of being annoying to their contemporaries. I think earnestness is a quality that ages really well.
Many of the lessons I took from this book can be reduced to the sorts of things a youth baseball coach would say to me during practice. This is related to the earnestness.
The need to move through periods of exploration and exploitation at different stages of a career is a lens that will stick with me. If you think your potential is capped in your current situation, it’s probably time to turn the dial towards exploration. This is not one I got in youth sports.
Another lens I’ll remember is “making yourself a big target for luck”. The book introduced me to Austin’s types of luck:
- Luck from motion — when you get an opportunity because you’re out in the world doing interesting things
- Luck from awareness — when you notice an opportunity is available to you (or you’re open to it)
- Luck from uniqueness — opportunities that come to you because of your unique interests, passions, and projects
“The harder you work, the luckier you get!”
Networks are important because of the influence they have on your aspirations. You need to be around people that expand your idea of what’s possible through words and actions.
It’s really important to (appropriately) display your work. People can’t bump into you if they don’t know you exist.
Caring is a source of alpha. Ray Kroc was one of the late bloomers. McDonald’s dominance made more sense when I better understood how much Ray Kroc cared. His passion for french fries isn’t something I share, but it makes sense that he of all people created the dominant fast food company. He cared more than anyone else!
Being a little reckless can be a good thing as you age. He cites a study (I think this one) where people who make a life change by flipping a coin are ultimately happier when it forces them to change rather than stick with the the status quo.
People who keep trying have more successes and more failures than those that don’t. Chaos and failure are not to be avoided but part of taking many chances at success. You do your best work when you do your most work. Quantity precedes quality. “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”
Courage / not counting yourself out is underrated. Believing that you have the ability to be excellent is not sufficient for becoming excellent but it is necessary. This is increasingly important with age. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.
Recommended if you, like me, hope your best work is ahead of you.
2024-01-26
My first book of 2024, Eisenhower in War and Peace by Jean Edward Smith.
One of my favorite biographies. Incredibly well paced and readable.
I think Ike has to be in the top 5 most influential Americans. Some of my contenders, in no particular order:
- Washington <- not becoming a King or Emperor is arguably the most influential thing about the country to date
- Grant <- wins the Civil War, two term president, leader of Reconstruction
- FDR <- 4 term president, New Deal, leads the country through World War II
- Lincoln <- holds the country together during the Civil War
- MLK <- for the Civil Rights Movement and its impacts
Ike obviously belongs in this list. As much as it pains me to say it, I think he's obviously above Lincoln, who is my favorite of the group, but just isn't on the national stage for long enough.
Here's the case for Ike:
- Wins the war in Europe
- Incredibly popular 2 term president
- Repeatedly refuses to use tactical nuclear weapons in early Conflicts, leading to today's norm of not using them
Assorted other stuff I enjoyed from this book:
- Eisenhower had a mistress during his time as the Supreme Allied Commander. Kay Summersby started as his driver and became his companion. The book provides good evidence that when the war was over, Eisenhower cabled Marshall to say he was staying in London with her and divorcing his wife and Marshall said he'd run him out of the Army. Ike then leaves her behind while taking the rest of his staff. The War Department removes her from photos (!) and then Truman destroys the cable to protect Ike (!). And you thought he was boring!
- The planning for invasion of Europe reminds me of ~every major product launch I've ever done. They Allies agree super early on, like 1942 that they must invade Europe via France, no other routes make sense and then spend 2 years doing everything but this while Eisenhower reminds them why they have to do it.
- The book makes a compelling case that Eisenhower prolongs the war and cedes Berlin to the Soviets by ignoring Monty's advice in September of 1944. I'm not enough of a military historian to critique the case, but it was interesting.
- Ike has basically zero command experience before becoming Supreme Allied Commander and was mostly put in as a placeholder for Marshall.
- His most important skill was his ability to drive consensus and still make his own decisions.
2024-01-01
Mild spoilers ahead
A fictional account of a military history about a war between China and the US and allied forces over Taiwan set in 2028.
I generally enjoyed this book (the narrative was compelling) and found it to be an easy way to develop a feel for the general geography and challenges that a come with a Taiwan conflict.
The device for this book is really clever. The actual book is obviously about events that haven't yet happened and are in the future. But within the book, the author mentions the decision to write this as a narrative history a la Killer Angels as a way of bringing the "historical" people within it to life for a new generation. This confusing to recount but is quite clever within the book.
As of the end of 2023 (and I guess early 2024), the book feels remarkably current. There's lots in it about Ukraine and Russia that feels like it could've been written ~a week ago.
One of the most interesting aspects of the book to me was the degree to which fooling the other side's AI through feeding it false data is the key to victory. You can't beat the algorithm, but you can misdirect it.
Space Force features prominently. I wonder how true to life this part is.
For about the first ~1/3 of the book there's a lot of discussion about "bespoke algorithms", which made me chuckle. What does that even mean?
I wish I had as much faith in US industrial capacity as the author does!
The ending felt like the author decided he was done. It made me think that the most likely equilibrium for such a conflict was a stalemate where China can't quite be pushed off the island but also can't quite control it.
